ASFPM Foundation 9th Annual Collegiate Student Paper Competition: Semifinalist

Recently, the abstract for a paper that I wrote with a fellow PhD student, Jordan Branham, was accepted as a semi-finalist for the ASFPM Foundation’s 9th  Annual Collegiate Student Paper Competition. We will be editing the paper for submission in April, and presenting on the topic in May; after which the first, second, and third place entries will be selected. The abstract is included below:

Abstract:

The effects of sea level rise and an increased propensity for major precipitation events caused by global climate change are expected to drive a dramatic reduction in the availability of habitable coastal land and induce population migrations away from particularly vulnerable areas (Allen et al. 2018; R. A. McLeman 2011). However, there is little understanding of how changing risk exposure influences individual decisions to relocate or the thresholds at which these decisions are made (Black, Adger, and Arnell 2013; Bardsley and Hugo 2010). In this paper, we seek to understand how the interaction of different scales of hazard events impact population change over time. To do this, we focus on exposure and vulnerability to flooding events. These events can range from repetitive ‘nuisance’ flooding caused by light weather to storm surges and severe rainfall precipitated by major hurricanes.

We address this research question by examining how minor and major floods between 1990 and 2016 impacted population movements during the same time period in North Carolina. Our study area is home to both coastal and riverine flood hazard areas, affording us the opportunity to tease out the marginal effects of flood vulnerability, exposure to disaster in the form of hurricanes, and the combination of these two factors on population change. Specifically, we use disaster declarations to quantify exposure to major disasters and define a census tract’s vulnerability based on the proportion of buildings within floodplains. Our analysis employs multiple regression with an interaction term in order to assess how our key explanatory variables individually and collectively influence population growth, while controlling for a number of mediating factors such as demographics, economic indicators, geography, and population trajectories.

Our findings suggest that populations have differential responses to environmental risks based on geography, particularly when compounded by joint exposure to both major and repetitive events. More specifically, while coastal communities have experienced significant population growth despite high levels of flood vulnerability, those subareas that are exposed to multiple disasters possess a negative relationship with population growth, suggesting that major disasters can act as focusing events that trigger population shifts (Birkland 1997). Comparatively, it appears that areas subjected to riverine-based flood risk are inclined to population loss in reaction to moderate risk, but less reactive to major events. We expect that these risk-responses will become more pronounced in the era of climate change as both major and minor flood events become more common and out-migration becomes self-supporting. Further, as population loss leads to reduced community resilience, the potential for the rise of non-linear migration exoduses will continue to increase (R. McLeman and Smit 2006; Massey et al. 1993). Therefore, while this study produces important initial findings, it is also presents a methodology that can continue to be used for a more rigorous longitudinal review that will be possible with future Census data.

Impacts of the Government Shutdown on HUD Programs: Blog Post

I wrote a new blog post for Carolina Angles on the impact of the government shutdown on HUD programs, with an emphasis on the impact in North Carolina. An excerpt is included below:

On January 4th, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released a memorandum intended to explain how payments will proceed to Assisted Property Owners who provide affordable housing units to families across the United States. They assured owners that, while the Department’s spending authority expired on December 21st, interim activities would continue for the first thirty business days. This would include payments for Section 8 contracts, rent supplement contracts, Section 236 agreements, and Project Rental Assistance Contracts (PRAC), among others, “on an as needed basis to ensure ongoing viability of assets and preservation of affordable housing…contingent on budget authority being available from prior year appropriations or recaptures.” It was not immediately clear if or how that would continue past the thirty-day mark, possibly because, at that time, it seemed unlikely we would surpass it [1].

Read more at Carolina Angles

Photo credit: Joseph Prezioso / AFP / Getty Images

Planning for 36 Hours in New Orleans, LA: Blog Post

Recently, I established a quick travel series for the Carolina Angles planning blog, which gives a quick look at fun haunts from the perspective of planning students and professionals. To kick off the series, I wrote a post on New Orleans, LA, where I lived for multiple years during my undergraduate education. An excerpt is included below:

About the series: Welcome to our ongoing travel series. These are all posts written by planning students and professionals about what to do in a given city when looking for Brunch, a Brew, or a good idea on a Budget. To cap it all off, we include a fun planning fact!

About the visit: I lived in New Orleans for five years during my undergraduate program and absolutely fell in love with this city. I can never go back as often as I like, but recently returned for a friend’s wedding. Here are some of my favorite haunts and top recommendations

Read more at Carolina Angles

What You Need to Know About the California Camp Fire: Blog Post

I recently authored a blog post for Carolina Angles on the ongoing California Camp Fire. An excerpt is included below:

The Camp Fire, named after Camp Creek Road near where it originated, has been burning since November 8, 2018. It is the worst wildfire in California’s history; this is not simply a state tragedy, but a national one. Furthermore, it is one that speaks to the unmeasured cost of climate change, which includes damage to environmental resources, expenditure of emergency resources, loss of built capital, loss of lives, and adverse impacts to long-term health.

The Camp Fire is the deadliest California wildfire on record, with over 70 individuals confirmed dead, and hundreds still missing. The next deadliest wildfire in California history was in 1933 and saw the loss of 29 lives. It has also been the most destructive wildfire in California’s history, with the loss of over 15,000 structures so far. The next most destructive wildfire saw the destruction of 5,636 structures. Over 100,000 people have been displaced.

Read more at Carolina Angles

ACSP 2018: Presenter

I presented on a topic that looked at how repeat events were related to disaster exposure.

There are communities inland within North Carolina that are inherently vulnerable. As climate change progresses, they will be at risk of disaster events with increasing frequency. Due to this, and due to vulnerable development, some of these communities will become obsolete, and their citizens will become climate refugees.

In the context of Hurricane Matthew: we have some understanding on why communities, and the individuals within them, choose to pursue buyout
programs. However, our understanding of why individuals mitigate in place is less certain. But, it is quite possible that physical characteristics of place, particularly the natural characteristics of the towns, play a significant role.

climate refugees

Modern Conspiracy: Panelist

Piscataway Park was the first park in the nation established to conserve a viewshed. It is across the Potomac River from Mount Vernon, George Washington’s ancestral home, and was protect the view from his porch, so that it might maintain the look of the region familiar to his time and era. It also encompasses an area known as the Moyaone Reserve, a semi-planned community with restrictive planning regulations, designed to safeguard a

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Resilient Design Education Report: Contributor

The Resilient Design Education Report: Current and Emerging Curricula in the Colleges and Universities was an analysis on how resilient design is taught, and how widespread the tutelage of this sub-field is. The study focused on five design-based disciplines: architecture, building sciences, engineering, landscape architecture, and planning. It utilized a structured internet search, key informant interviews, and five case studies of programs that focused on resilient design education. 

Carolina Angles: Head Editor

The Carolina Planning Journal (CPJ), based out of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill’s Department of City and Regional Planning, is the oldest student-run planning journal in the country, with over four decades of history. It is designed and developed to share the work of practitioners, academics, and advanced students and to further conversations around planning locally as well as globally.

It is run in conjuncture with Carolina Angles, an associated blog providing regular updates of planning thoughts that range from serious to silly. It was developed to allow for quicker reactions to ongoing events, to act as a platform to amplify the thoughts of students and professionals alike, and to reach out to and engage a broader audience. I have been on the editorial board for both the blog and the journal since I began by PhD. Now, I am transitioning to the head editor of the Carolina Angles blog.

 

Honorable Mention for DesignWeek: Group Member

Introduction

DesignWeek is an annual, studio-based project hosted by NC State University’s Department of Landscape Architecture. DesignWeek 2018 focused on the Neuse River Watershed, broken into three sub regions: the Upper Neuse, the Middle Neuse, and the Lower Neuse. The goal was to develop a project that would envision the future of the sub-region of the river basin, with an emphasis on the impact of the climate change and the projections of increased repetitive flood events. Each sub-region was assigned four project teams. I was on a project team with five other students, all of whom were Masters students in NC State’s Landscape Architecture program, assigned to the Upper Neuse region. Our project won an honorable mention as the best project in that region.

Project Background

Like many cities in the United States, Durham is facing multiple trends that deter sustainable development, which risks the stability and vitality of the future to meet the demands of the present. On one hand, Durham is experiencing a population boom. In the decade from 2000-2010, the population increased 22%, and the City anticipates that it will continue to increase steadily for the foreseeable future (Durham City-County 2017). On the other hand, many decisions made in the City’s past have led to existing conditions that hinder resiliency and places citizens at risk. Fortunately, the County has produced a proactive Comprehensive Plan and Land Use Goals Map to guide future development (Durham City-County Planning Department 2017a). Our proposal, the Five Parks District Plan, will help Durham meet its goals and increase its resiliency while ameliorating some of the problems experienced in existing neighborhoods.

Capture

Analysis

The development of the Five Parks District Plan began with a parallel, two-pronged analysis from ecological, social, and economic perspectives: one aimed at identifying civic and community aspirations, and one aimed at identifying concerns. We reviewed the City of Durham’s plans and current priorities, so that our concept would complement Durham’s long-term goals.

Durham’s Future Land Use Map, projecting desired development patterns for the City and County, shows that the target area primarily consists of land coded as Recreation / Open Space, particularly along the Eno River, Teer Quarry, and the undeveloped land directly east of the quarry (Durham City-County Planning Department 2017b), which is within the 100-year floodplain (North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program (NCFMP), n.d.). The majority of the remaining area is coded as Low-Medium Density (defined as 4-8 Dwelling Units per acre) (Durham City-County Planning Department 2017b), which is denser than existing conditions (City of Durham 2018). This indicates a preference for ‘Smart Densification’ to support the growing population without risking valuable public resources.

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Our analysis continued with a comprehensive review of the existing natural features. The Eno River watershed is relatively healthy, however, a number of creeks feeding it have ‘degraded water quality.’ Additionally, the City of Durham Stormwater Services has identified a number of methods to ensure its continued integrity and future health (City of Durham and City of Durham Stormwater Services 2017). These areas are noted as Natural Heritage sites by the NC Natural Heritage Program for their high level of biodiversity (NC Natural Heritage Program 2018).

The Eno River is not without its risks. Due to the proximity of past development, a number of homes exist within the 100-year floodplain (North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program (NCFMP), n.d.). To ethically ameliorate this issue, we reviewed buy-outs initiated in other municipalities. These show that participants in such programs are at risk of increased social vulnerability, and that they often move to equally vulnerable areas (McGhee, Albright, and Binder 2017, 42–44). More successful methods combine buyouts with land swaps to direct the resettlement process (Nelson 2014, 428–29).

Finally, we reviewed the physical condition of the adjacent neighborhoods. Most are composed of single-family homes within cul-de-sac developments that lack sidewalks. While they are physically close to some of the best green space within the county, there are few points of access.

Goals and Objectives

The Five Park District proposal design proposes Smart Densification that would support neighborhood and community ties and increase the economic prospects while protecting the natural environment. We emphasized interventions that leveraged existing amenities, allowing simple changes to have an outsized impact with far-reaching benefits. We also focused on design choices that would create more intensive use of underutilized resources, creating economic benefits. Goals include:

  • Use land swaps and tax incentives to relocate 100% of households in the floodplain to safe lots within their neighborhood, protecting community ties.
  • Improve walkability by introducing sidewalks to existing neighborhoods and increase access opportunities into the park system. Street widths would support sidewalks along one side without changing traffic patterns.
  • Connect the largely disjointed parks by expanding and programming nearly 400 acres of underutilized green spaces to reduce fragmentation and isolation with a double loop of low-impact trails.
  • Introduce water retention and water quality mitigation methods to improve water quality and protect the Eno River and associated park areas against the pressures of future development. Provide tax incentives for homes to add raingardens; introduce bioswales at roadways to handle runoff; repair the riparian barrier and extend the bottomland hardwood forest to clean water contamination from tributary creeks (City of Durham and City of Durham Stormwater Services 2017).
  • Create partnerships with local investors to introduce mixed-use developments with 15% of housing reserved for households at or below 30% AMI (Area Median Income).
  • Build a magnet school focused on ecology, sustainability, and student health. Reduce childhood obesity through early intervention activities and resources (Spratt et al. 2015).

Implementation

The Five Park District would be implemented in three phases. The first stage is a 2-year land acquisition and partnership phase. The county would begin discussions with households at-risk for flooding, though their relocation may be phased for later.

We would also begin to build partnerships beyond the area of design intervention. Lots owned by investment companies but not yet developed and zoned as low-density would be identified. The County would work with the companies to up-zone the lots to higher-density and mixed-use in exchange for the provision of affordable housing units (Calavita and Mallach 2009). Increasing the allowed density increases possible revenues and therefore the land-value, while the development of the park system will increase interest in investment in the surrounding areas, making affordable housing cost-neutral (Calavita and Wolfe 2014). Further tax-incentives, such as LIHTC (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit), will provide additional encouragement (Ellen, Horn, and O’Regan 2016; Nedwick and Burnett 2015).

The 5-year phase will focus on the physical connections of the Five Park District system. The plan will connect the West Point on the Eno, the River Forest Park, and Penny’s Bend, increase neighborhood access and program the land within the floodplain to develop further parkland. The largest land acquisition includes parcels zoned Industrial / Mining around the now defunct Teery Quarry. Five of these lots comprising nearly 250 acres, are owned by just two engineering and aggregate production companies. This land would be developed into the Teery Quarry park. A double-looped trail, featuring two additional bridges crossing the Eno River and multiple connections back to the community allows for a variety of experiences (NC Natural Heritage Program 2018). Ecological restoration activities would also occur in this phase, protecting the natural features and ameliorating any existing pollution concerns (City of Durham and City of Durham Stormwater Services 2017).

double looped

The final 10-year phase would see the development of community buildings. A simple park building will be placed at the center of the Five Parks District for recreational equipment rentals and summer camps. The lot housing the Kroger Grocery store, currently built too close to the river, will be acquired once the lease runs out. A land swap will ensure that the grocery remains within the area. In its place, a magnet school will be carefully built in respect to the Eno River, and its program will capitalize on the new amenities by focusing on STEM education with an ecological and sustainable focus.

Conclusion

The Five Park District focuses on the goals and interests of the City of Durham and finds innovative ways to achieve them to improve the Ecological condition of the Neuse Watershed, strengthen the existing Communities, and increase the Economic prospects within and beyond the target area. By emphasizing careful interventions that develops connectivity at key areas, this project leverages existing amenities and is able to have an outsized impact with far-reaching benefits. The beautiful park system that this project would develop would become a point of pride for the City as a whole.

NC State 3


References:

American Rivers. “Full Report: Naturally Stronger: How Natural Water Infrastructure Can Save Money and Improve Lives,” 2017. https://medium.com/naturally-stronger/full-report-naturally-strong-d3459c2d521a

Calavita, Nico, and Allan Mallach. “Inclusionary Housing, Incentives, and Land Value Recapture.” Land Lines, no. January (2009): 15–21. http://ci.boulder.co.us/files/HSHHS/Planning/study_session_memo_2009/attachment_k_lincoln_inst_land_value_and_incentives.pdf

Calavita, Nico, and Marian Wolfe. “Public Benefit Zoning,” no. November (2014)

City of Durham. “City of Durham Capital Improvement Plan: Fiscal Year 2018-2023,” 2017

City of Durham. “Durham Interactive Maps: GoMaps Mobile,” n.d. http://maps2.roktech.net/durhamnc_gomaps4/

City of Durham, and City of Durham Stormwater Services. “Factsheet #2 About the Eno River Watershed Improvement Project,” 2017. https://durhamnc.gov/DocumentCenter/View/17806

City of New Bern. “Stormwater Wetlands Informational Brochure,” n.d.

Durham City-County. “Demographics,” 2017. https://durhamnc.gov/386/Demographics

Durham City-County Planning Department. “Future Land Use Map,” 2017

Durham City-County Planning Department. “Chapter 7 Conservation and Environment Element The Durham Comprehensive Plan.” In Durham Comprehensive Plan, 2017

Durham City-County Planning Department. “Mitigation Action Plan — City of Durham.” In Eno-Haw Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan, 1–12, 2016

Durham County. “Durham Real Property Search.” Tax Administration Record Search, n.d. https://property.spatialest.com/nc/durham/

Ellen, Ingrid G., Keren M. Horn, and Katherine M. O’Regan. “Poverty Concentration and the Low Income Housing Tax Credit: Effects of Siting and Tenant Composition.” Journal of Housing Economics 34 (2016): 49–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2016.08.001

Google. “Google Earth,” n.d.

Lynn, Kevin A. “Who Defines ‘Whole’: an Urban Political Ecology of Flood Control and Community Relocation in Houston , Texas.” Journal of Political Ecology 24 (2017): 951–67

Mcghee, Devon, Elizabeth A Albright, and Sherri Brokopp Binder. “Were the Post-Sandy Staten Island Buyouts Successful in Reducing National Vulnerability?,” 2017

NC Natural Heritage Program. “North Carolina Natural Heritage Data Explorer.” Accessed January 15, 2018. http://ncnhde.natureserve.org/content/map

Nedwick, Todd, and Kimberly Burnett. “How Can the LIHTC Program Most Effectively Be Used to Provide Affordable Rental Housing Near Transit?” Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research 17, no. 2 (2015): 113–37. http://www.huduser.org/periodicals/cityscpe/prev_iss/cspast.html%5Cnhttp://login.ezproxy.library.ualberta.ca/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=1544813&site=ehost-live&scope=site

Nelson, Marla. “Using Land Swaps to Concentrate Redevelopment and Expand Resettlement Options in Post-Hurricane Katrina New Orleans.” Journal of the American Planning Association 80, no. 4 (2014): 426–37. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2014.988167

North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program (NCFMP). “Flood Risk Information System,” n.d. http://www.ncfloodmaps.com/top_about.htm

Simons, James D., and North Carolina Geological Survey. “Map of Northwest Durham Quadrangle.” Department of Environment and Natural Resources Division of Land Resources, 2010. http://www.ncgeology.com/Northwest_Durham_Data_archive/maps_nwd.htm

Spratt, Susan E., Bryan C. Batch, Lisa P. Davis, Ashley A. Dunham, Michele Easterling, Mark N. Feinglos, Bradi B. Granger, et al. “Methods and Initial Findings from the Durham Diabetes Coalition: Integrating Geospatial Health Technology and Community Interventions to Reduce Death and Disability.” Journal of Clinical and Translational Endocrinology 2, no. 1 (2015): 26–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcte.2014.10.006

USGS. “Gage Height: 02085070 Eno River Near Durham, NC,” 2018